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CAR鈥檚 inclusion on Watchlist 2021 is driven both by the persistent armed conflict within the country and the likelihood that any shock will have a particularly severe impact given the extreme vulnerability of the population and the country鈥檚 limited response capacity.
CAR saw major conflict after armed groups overran the capital in 2013 and, while the situation has since calmed, armed groups continue to control large swathes of territory, driving widespread instability. Most armed groups continue to observe the 2019 peace deal but it has come under growing pressure as political tensions intensified in 2020. Over half of the population is already expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2021 (OCHA) and this number could rise rapidly if there s any recurrence of major conflict or natural disasters. CAR will enter 2021 days after it holds both presidential and legislative elections, which could spark further instability and challenge efforts to respond to the country鈥檚 crises