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Afghanistan has risen to second on Watchlist because of its high exposure to the triple threats of conflict, COVID-19 and climate change and uncertainty over the stalled peace process between the government and the Taliban.
Even after four decades of crises, humanitarian needs in Afghanistan are growing rapidly amid COVID-19 and unrelenting violence, with the number of people in need for 2021 nearly doubling compared to early 2020. Needs could rise rapidly in 2021 if intra-Afghan peace talks fail to make progress, particularly amid uncertainty about the continued
US military presence in the country. The global pandemic and climate related disasters are exacerbating needs for Afghans, many of whom have lived through decades of conflict, chronic poverty, economic crises, and protracted displacement. Some armed groups oppose the peace talks and so the security situation in Afghanistan will remain volatile regardless of that process, with violence continuing to drive humanitarian needs and civilian casualties.